Let’s hope this analysis is right !
Having swallowed the Crimea without a fight, Vladimir Putin is beginning to digest it. With a referendum coming soon on the peninsula’s status, whose outcome is known no matter what the vote tallies are, it’s obvious that Moscow has won this round handily, and as I’ve explained, NATO’s real task at hand is deterring Putin’s next aggressive move, likely into Eastern Ukraine.
Whether Putin actually will move troops into Donetsk and Kharkiv and seize the East is anyone’s guess. It is certainly within his capabilities, given the lamentable state of the Ukrainian military right now. It’s evident that Russian intelligence, particularly the military’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), has been laying the groundwork, rallying ethnic Russians and planning aggressive acts, including provocations to justify an invasion to “protect” innocents from rampaging Ukrainian “fascists.” This script was written some time ago and is classic Russian espionage tradecraft, what they tellingly…
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